How Windy Is It . . . ? Monday, 20th June 2016 – No.184
How windy was it last week?
We all expected last week to hit fever pitch, with the last full week before the referendum campaigning machines of both parties hitting full steam. Tragically, no-one foresaw the devastating murder of Jo Cox, the Labour MP for Birstall. Quite rightly, the campaigning was suspended for both parties, as the country became united in grief for the family that has lost a daughter, a mother and a wife. Whether or not the murder was related to the referendum or a wider malaise is irrelevant; any loss of life is tragic and the responses from all sectors of our society has to be encouraging.
What is in store for us this week? Do we need to ask? The wait is finally over as the vast majority of the UK is set to go to the polling booths on Thursday. This is simply dominating the political and market environments, as you might expect, with increased volatility for the stock and foreign exchange markets.
The current polls put both the ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ camps locked at 44% each. However, the betting sites current favour a remain victory. We believe the voted turnout will be key and the chart below shows the likelihood of a particular demographic’s propensity to actually turn up and vote.
The interesting point to the chart is those most in favour of remaining in the EU or those less likely (according to YouGov) to turnout.
We believe that the referendum on Thursday will have one of the highest turnover rates in recent times.
However, will the great British electorate be deterred by the great British Summer?